Two articles this month highlight changes in the computer industry, particularly changes that represent a threat to Microsoft.
the computer is the network... eventually
Maybe a decade ago Sun Microsystems recognized and promoted the idea that the most interesting things to be done with a personal computer were done over a network. Everything from playing computer games with other people to searching someone else's website, the individual computer was becoming less important that networked computers. Sun predicted that users would care more about their programs than about Windows and everyone would be focused on network applications.
Sun has not faired well despite this prescience but some of their predictions are finally bearing fruit, largely because of Microsoft's inability to crush Google as they were able to do with Java and Sun. I think this trend towards network applications is a good thing for individual users but it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Any Big Revolution On the Net Will Be Televised by Microsoft
November 9, 2005
Is Microsoft getting into the business of the New Internet just when the business is going south? If it is, this is one case where the company isn't going to mind if its timing is off.
...
If it all seems like the usual case of Microsoft belatedly catching up with others' innovations and market pressure, that's partly true. The company is trying to diffuse the well-publicized threat posed to it by Google. But there is more to it than that. Microsoft is also grappling with a phenomenon that is related but less well-known, at least outside of Silicon Valley: The belief in certain tech circles that the Internet is in the midst of a revolutionary shift.
Those pushing the idea of a New Internet, sometimes known as Web 2.0, say this new, improved Net won't just be about Web pages, but also, among other things, about introducing a new breed of agile and personalized programs that live on the network instead of on your PC.
Google's Gmail and Google Maps programs are mentioned as examples. The opposite of a Web 2.0 program, as it happens, is software made by Microsoft.
the next 150 million users
A lot of people have dreamed about the riches of selling computers to the billions of people in the 3rd world. Up until now, price has been a huge problem but i happen to think that solving the hardware problems will be the easiest part.
The harder part will be a software platform that is easy enough for those new users to use. I dont think it is widely recognized in the technical community how few highly educated, professional users in this country are completely mystified by Windows.
Those whizbang new features are nice but most users struggle with basic concepts of installing software and computer security. As a friend put it to me recently: "I just want it to work. I dont have the time or the interest to figure all that crap out." Amen. In terms of ease of use, "personal" computers today are orders of magnitude more complicated than other personal devices like the VCR or cell phone. (I happen to think it is a cop out for companies to say this situation it is ok if adults cannot operate the computer because the kids will learn how.)
One huge question for the $100 personal computer: How much of that $100 will go to Microsoft?
The $100 Laptop Moves Closer to Reality
November 14, 2005
A novel plan to develop a $100 laptop computer for distribution to millions of schoolchildren in developing countries has caught the interest of governments and the attention of computer-industry heavyweights.
First announced in January by Nicholas Negroponte, the founding chairman of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Media Lab, the initiative appears to be gaining steam. Mr. Negroponte is scheduled to demonstrate a working prototype of the device with United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan on Wednesday at a U.N. technology conference in Tunisia.
...
Although no contracts with governments have been signed, Mr. Negroponte says current plans call for producing five to ten million units beginning in late 2006 or early 2007, with tens of millions more a year later. Five companies -- Google Inc., Advanced Micro Devices Inc., Red Hat Inc., News Corp. and Brightstar Corp. -- have each provided $2 million to fund a nonprofit organization called One Laptop Per Child that was set up to oversee the project. Mr. Negroponte says five companies are bidding to make the laptop, although he declined to name them.
Mr. Negroponte remains eager to place the laptop in the hands of 100 to 150 million students. He says he has learned in educational projects in Cambodia and other developing countries that computers spur children to learn and explore outside the boundaries of a classroom, and share their discoveries with their families. "I do not think of them only in classrooms, but part of an integrated and seamless experience for kids and their families," he says.
Still, the project would require governments in the developing world to come up with $15 billion to supply 150 million laptops, and it isn't yet clear how many countries can afford even a $100 machine. Technical hurdles also remain.
