Huge news this week: Apple announces a dual-boot technology for their new Intel-based macs that lets users run either MacOS or Windows. (Congratulations Gavin - you predicted it all along :)
market share but which market?
A few months back, some of us were discussing Apple's potential market share gains in the next few years. Could it reach 20%?
At the time, I thought 10% would be a more realistic goal. After all, this is a single company/manufacturer and we are talking hardware not software. 10% of such a huge pie is a terrific business. But now I am rethinking my earlier position in light of todays articles about BootCamp.
Several articles discuss whether Apple is going to storm the business world with their dual-boot feature. I think this idea misses the point. Microsoft is and will remain the corporate PC platform; Apple is the "computer for the rest of us". Apple is for consumers like you and me - people that use a computer at home, home offices and small companies. All the people that cannot afford an IT department of certified Windows professionals should be using an Apple. That is Apple's real potential market, and its a healthy one.
Now how much of the total PC market is that consumer market slice? 10% 30% 40% I dont know but that is the number I think Apple should be going for and I sincerely hope they get it all. Like Mossberg, I have tried the rest and my Mac is the best personal computer system available. (And the more people Switch, the less Windows-only software there will be.)
the platform wars
On NPR last night, I heard Leo Laporte from This Week in Tech talking about this topic and he made the point that I have been saying for some time (its nice to hear others validate your opinions :) -- People dont care what platform they are using. The operating system is not a compelling product on its own. People dont buy computers to run Windows or MacOS or Linux, they buy computers to run programs. A browser, a word processor, a game, that sort of thing.
The holy grail for regular users is a platform that just lets us run any program. The holy grail is an invisible platform and Boot Camp is not the answer. Dual booting allows people like me to get rid of my "I need it once in a while Windows PC" but dual booting is still rather a pain. You have to reboot to change programs and you have to mess with moving data and such. You may have a single computer but you will still have two mutually exclusive platform domains.
In the short term, Boot Camp will generate sales from those people who were already curious about a Mac but afraid to leave Windows. As I have written before, normal people are afraid to leave the safety of what they know (even if they are unhappy) to try a Mac. Changing platforms is such a big investment of money and education time, people are loathe to experiment and dual booting will help them make the leap by lowering the entry cost, at least psychologically. If they are unhappy, they can still run Windows. If they need something done in a hurry, they can switch back to Windows. Etc.
Longer-term I hope we see improvements in Virtual PC (or a similar product), the software emulator that lets users run a single Windows program while still running the MacOS. Emulator technology will get us closer to the universal platform world some of us dreamt about when Java was first launched. (Ya, if wishes were fishes I would have a killer aquarium. :)
All in all, I am thrilled with the announcement. I cant wait to upgrade my laptop to an Notebook Pro (even though the name still sucks beans.) Then again, if I buy a Vista machine when they come out in 2008 (or was that 2010?) I can play Halo2! Sweet! :)
Mossberg has a rather long evaluation as well as more glowing endorsements in his column today.
Boot Camp Turns Your Mac Into a Reliable Windows PC
April 6, 2006
For mainstream computer users doing typical tasks, Apple Computer's Macintosh models have huge advantages over the prevalent Windows computers from companies such as Dell and Hewlett-Packard. The Macs have sleeker hardware designs, a superior operating system, much better built-in software, and virtually no exposure to viruses and spyware. Apple's flagship model, the iMac, is the best consumer desktop on the market.
...
You can't run both operating systems at the same time. Switching between the two requires you to restart the Mac; the operating system you're not using is shut down. That makes switching a little slow, but it also means that each operating system runs like a separate computer, with full control of the hardware. This allows Windows to run at full speed and protects your Mac files from the effects of Windows viruses.
With Boot Camp, you could choose to run a Mac solely as a Windows machine, with good results. But Apple doesn't expect many people to do this. Instead, it assumes Boot Camp users will still use the Mac operating system and Mac software 90% of the time, switching into Windows mode only to run a few Windows programs. Some customers may never use Windows on their Macs, and just see Boot Camp as a sort of insurance policy that allows them to switch to the Mac without fear that they'd lose future access to Windows programs.
Apple's move is only the first in what will likely be a series of new programs that allow the Intel Macs to run Windows. Today, a small Virginia company called Parallels plans to release a beta version of its own software to run Windows on an Intel Mac. It's called Parallels Workstation for OS X and will cost $49, plus the cost of Windows itself. Unlike Boot Camp, Parallels creates a "virtual machine" that simulates a Windows computer inside the Mac OS. I haven't had a chance to test this product, but may do so in coming months.
All in all, Boot Camp works really well. Whether you want to run Mac or Windows programs, an Apple computer may be the only computer you'll need.
