What a month!
The PS3. The Wii. Gears of War for the 360. November 2006 made history for the video game industry. (It was also the wettest month in Seattle's history but that's another story.)
Although I dont have my hands on one (yet), I continue to ponder the PS3 and recent comparisons between the three next-gen platforms.
When the Xbox 360 came out one year ago, it was compared with the previous generation of hardware. Even though the 360 did not launch with any groundbreaking titles (and consumers/reviewers complained about compelling 360 games all year), the system was an immediate improvement over the PS2 and Xbox due to its support of HD graphics. Over the year, Microsoft continued to improve Xbox Live which became (arguably) the most compelling 360 feature.
We have had a few generations of console systems to reflect on now and there are definite patterns to consider. Two trends in particular:
a) It generally takes developers a year for developers to write software that really looks good on new hardware. Launch titles really dont compare to titles 1+ years after launch.
b) The original systems are sold to early-adopters, particularly upgraders from the previous platform. After a year or more, the mainstream joins the party as the games improve in quality and selection. (This is standard "Crossing the Chasm" stuff.)
Both of these trends are in full-force at the moment.
"Gears Of War" was released one year after the 360 launch - and it looks fantastic. Gears is the "must have" 360 game and it may give Halo3 (the original Xbox "must have" game) a run for its money (although both are developed internally at Microsoft). Gears is showing how great a 360 can look and it makes the previous 360 titles look weak by comparison.
The PS3 and Wii are in a different position. The PS3 is being criticized (like the 360 was) for not having any compelling games at launch. While this state is normal (expect the great PS3 games for next Xmas), Sony is getting a different response because the 360 exists.
"Resistance: Fall Of Man" is the big PS3 launch title. While it is considered much better than Microsoft's launch title Perfect Dark: Zero, that was a year ago. Today Resistance has to compete with Gears and most agree that Gears is the winner. (Then again, these titles only reflect the first-person shooter segment of the market and may not reflect the overall purchase decision.)
Comparing Resistance to Gears is not a fair comparison from a development perspective but a totally legitimate comparison from a consumer stand point. By delaying the system for a whole year, the PS3 is now facing head winds from many directions. This is reflected in the generally negative comparisons in the media at the moment.
Should you purchase a 360-platform now or wait for better games on the PS3 next year? It is a difficult question if you can only purchase one system, which is what most people do. And if you would prefer a PS3, how long are you willing to wait to get one due to the blue-ray supply shortage?
The PS3 hardware really is amazing stuff and it will shine if they can stick around long enough. The question now is whether enough PS2 fanboys will purchase a PS3 this year before the great "must have" PS3 games come out in 12 months or whether they will defect to the 360 platform in droves?
The Wii, as usual, is off on its own. Nintendo is gambling that game content and fun controllers (plus low cost) will trump HD graphics. Time will tell how consumers feel and what matters most in their purchase decisions. The thing is, most people (men) respond intensely to graphics and the contrasts between current-gen and last-gen are going to be very severe, if not now, 12 months from now. Then again, the Wii might be the "2nd home machine" in which case it competes on very different terms.
November 2006 is a huge month and one we will probably all be looking back on as the video game wars rage on.
