Well I started writing a post about the new year back in January, when the year actually was new. It is now March and themes of the year are becoming more clear. 2007 is shaping up to be quite a year.

Some things to watch over the next ten months of 2007:

• The housing market -- Is there a national bubble? What will happen to the subprime (and prime) mortgage markets? Will consumer spending drop as consumer debts catches up?
• Investor's appetite (and evaluation) of risk is likely to change if the economy slows down. The risk premium has all but disappeared for bonds and bank loans but will there be a backlash? Economic theory says there has to be.
• A sea change in Washington, D.C. may not raise all boats -- A Democratic congress comes on a rising tide, President Bush and his Iraq war head for the rocks, and the 2008 Presidential elections is on the horizon.
• iTunes, Zune, and a host of video download services will forge ahead as the giant media companies face the (growing) reality of an Internetworked world.
• Five years in the making, Microsoft Vista will (finally) do something - flop or sizzle - with enormous impact (or pain) for the PC world, not to mention Seattle itself.
• Global warming is increasingly on the minds of citizens and politicians around the globe. Will nature or politicians be the first to make big changes?
• The iPhone may become the first "smart phone" that anyone cares about.
• Will the "big three" become the "big two" in 2007? Even as global warming grows, there is a global oversupply of cars. Will there be a correction and what will it look like?
• Will the PS3 get some games worth playing and build a base or will Sony be the first to die off, leaving the game market to Microsoft and Nintendo or will consumers (and Sony/MSFT) realize that the Wii is just a peripheral?

Yessir, a lot of interesting things going on this year and the picture should be a lot more clear by Xmas 2007.