2007 - the year of music

At the start of 2007, I predicted it would be the year of audio. Things are taking longer to progress than I expected but I still think we will have seen big changes by the end of 2007.

At the start of this year, Apple's iTunes service completely dominated digital music with no competition in sight. Apple had the major label content but their system uses a proprietary DRM model.

As the year progressed, the sale of physical CD's continued to fall and Apple stayed on top despite the competition.

First came Zune. Then came the start of something of actual consequence: DRM-free content.

First EMI then Universal announced they would offer digital music DRM-free. DRM-free content is a watershed moment in the music industry. The music industry is under attack from digital alternatives and they need to change or die.

Apple and EMI offered DRM-free songs for a premium price. Amazon.com has also announced it would offer such a service this year and Wal-Mart quietly released their own digital music service - for their four Net-Zero dial-up customers that will use it.

As one of the largest physical CD stores and one of the most popular websites, Amazon may be the first to give Apple competition. Amazon will also be the first big name to push DRM-free content in a big way. DRM-free is a big win for customers; 3 to 6 months from now, we shall see whether or not customers agree.

2008 - the year of video

At the start of the year there was a ton of buzz about YouTube and I thought we would see big changes in video by the end of the year. Now i think it will be 2008. Music may have been the first industry to feel the wrath of the Internet, but TV and Cable will be the next.

Consumers want choice; they want individual programming. I live in Seattle but I want to watch Michigan basketball games. Immigrants live in the US but they want to watch World Cup or TV shows in other countries. Just because cable TV offers 100+ channels, it doesnt mean they offer what you want to watch nor does it mean you want to pay their toll.

The Internet could offer those options but the traditional broadcast industries stand in the way. Broadcast content is consumed very differently from music but it too will have to change or die.

This year we saw an expansion of downloadable video content, from movies on iTunes to free TV show episodes on ABC.com. Internet television products continue to inch forward, waiting for that big hit or that big license deal that will cause the mainstream to take notice.

I wish it would hurry up and happen.