Monday: "Crisis on Wall Street...."
Thursday: "Mounting fears shake world markets...."
Friday: "U.S. drafts sweeping plan to fight crisis..."
I wish I had kept all the Wall Street Journals this week. In economic terms, this week was mind blowing. September 2008 is going to become known as a seminal month in the history of our country.
This month will mark the turning point in the largest financial bubble in world history. We haven't seen the consequences yet but they are likely to be as significant as the banking reform after the great depression of the 1920's and 30's.
Despite the significance of anything involving trillions of dollars, people seem to be going about their business as usual. Where is the fear? Where is the outrage and demand for accountability?
Sunday I watched the ABC morning news show (the one with Stephanopolous) which featured an interview with Senator Chris Dodd (R), co-chairman of the congressional committee on banking, followed by a round-table of news journalists. It was the first time I have ever watched one of these shows and felt that these people, these Washington insiders, the folks in charge, have no idea what is going on.
When McCain said that the head of the SEC should show some accountability and resign, the pundits called him "an angry old man" who went "too far". I remember when the stock market crashed in the 1980's (a MUCH smaller problem) and brokers committed suicide rather than face the loses and shame. When the idea of firing someone is going too far, you know we have problems.
Sunday night I watched the 60 Minutes interviews with our two presidential candidates: McCain and Obama. Much like the morning experience, I was not impressed or reassured. The best I can say is that Obama seems to be talking to a good group of economists and he seems able to have a conversation with them; McCain seems too old to deal with this crisis.
McCain is a soldier and best suited to the challenges of the 20th Century. We live in the Information Age now and this financial crisis is one that was created by the tools of the Information Age: spreadsheets and complex financial models run by hedge funds and others. The houses that we can see being foreclosed on are just the tip of the iceberg, the smaller 1/3 of the of the problem. The real damage is in the paper intangibles: options, derivatives, insurance.
Warren Buffett warned about these problems maybe 6 months ago but the only person I have heard speak intelligently about the mess is historian Kevin Phillips.
Last week, I caught part of a lecture he gave and Im thinking about buying it. Phillips' books are a pain in the ass to read but he is clear as a bell when talking. I dont know how one person can know so much, but Phillips does a financial rewind of the last century and brings together all the threads to today. The results are not pretty.
Besides explaining the factors in the current financial mess, Phillips' argues that an American today would have felt very much at home in England, Holland or Spain -- just before those empires collapsed. Yikes. A sobering thought even without the numbers, which he provides.
Hold on to your hats and pray for leadership. The news reports I keep hearing continue miss the story and simplify the issues to the point of nonsense.







Leave a comment
There are two ways to leave a comment:
One can create an account on this blog (Movable Type) or use authentication from several other sources, including OpenID, LiveJournal, Vox or TypeKey.