In the USA, we are well on the way to a personal computer in every household. At first that meant a desktop, now it often means a laptop.
But it seems pretty clear that the "PC" for the other 6 billion people on Earth is going to be a cellphone. Or perhaps a netbook.
Take the netbook form-factor -- portable like a phone but much larger screen and keyboard.
Add always-on Internet access through a cell phone carrier.
Add a very low-power CPU like VIA's EDEN line for super-long battery life (as in days not hours).
Add a Linux OS in firmware with a decent window manager and support for a web browser.
Add web-applications for common tasks from Yahoo, Google, and startups.
Add an offline-web technology like Google Gears.
The result?
Email, instant messaging, voice and video calls, watch photos and videos, shop, create basic documents and spreadsheets... You get a system that does almost everything people want to do without buying a single piece of software.
The result could be a system that satisfies basic computing needs at a really low price. Sell 300 million of them in the BRIC countries.
A win for hardware companies who make hardware cheaper every year and need volume.
A win for web companies that need users (eye-balls) and continue to add power to browser-based software.
A loss for OS and desktop application companies like Microsoft.
It goes without saying that this is not a new idea. The threat has been quashed by Intel and Microsoft for years but it keeps... coming... back...
Eventually it might actually take off. Or the same thing might just happen on cell phones.
Skipping Your Computer's Warm-Up Time
Web-Based Products Let Users Perform Basic Tasks, but Slam the Shades on Windows
JANUARY 21, 2009
Wall Street Journal
One way to evade slow boot-up syndrome is to use a special operating environment that performs a handful of basic tasks and works as an alternative to Windows. If installed on your computer, a system like this can start up instantly when you press your PC's power button -- like turning on a TV.
Phoenix Technologies Ltd. and DeviceVM Inc. both offer popular quick-start environments. Phoenix offers two solutions, called HyperSpace Dual and HyperSpace Hybrid, for five PC manufacturers, including Lenovo, Toshiba and Acer. DeviceVM's product, called Splashtop, comes preloaded on PCs from Asus, VooDooPC and Lenovo, and each brand calls this feature something different, like "Quick Start" on a Lenovo laptop. I used HyperSpace Hybrid on a Lenovo ThinkPad X301, but didn't get a chance to try Splashtop.
Closed Windows
It's misleading to say that the Phoenix HyperSpace products offer a faster way to start up your computer, because they don't actually open Windows, which is your computer's heart and soul. Instead, they offer a primitive, bare-bones user interface that relies on Web-based applications. For example, you can send and receive email, but only by using a Web-based email program like Gmail or Hotmail. Documents must be created using a program like Google Docs, and when you watch videos, you must use a player like YouTube rather than something like Windows Media Player or QuickTime. Photos can be viewed either via a photo Web site like Flickr or in the HyperSpace browser. Nothing like Word or PowerPoint is available in this slimmed-down environment.
