E3 kicks off next week. How does the industry look?

In 2005 Microsoft introduced the Xbox 360 which has sold 40M units in the past 5 years.

In 2006 Sony introduced the PS3 which was criticized for its $500 price and has sold 36M units in the past 4 years.

In 2006 Nintendo introduced the Wii - a last-gen console that was much derided for its old tech and its bad name - and then went on to blaze past Microsoft and Sony. 4 years and 71M units and all of them sold at a profit. (Who is laughing now?)

In 2007 Apple released the iPhone. With a data plan, it cost almost as much as a PS3 and in 3 years it has sold 50M units (plus 20M iPodTouch units) while the app store has changed gaming profoundly with its price pressure on software. (And no, I doubt Apple will even be at E3.)

In 2009 video game industry revenue fell 8%; this past year it fell 11%. Two straight years of decline.

At E3 this year we will see the new 3D handheld technology from Nintendo. Hmmm.

We will see Microsoft's military-camera-technology turned into a device-free motion controller, Natal.

We will see Sony's is-that-a-microphone-in-your-pocket camera-based motion controller, Move.

I am curious if any of those companies will have software that makes us want to care about any of those new devices.

The Wii was a hit because it went after the massive, non-tech market. (They continue to pursue seniors and casual gamers.) Sony and MSFT are both trying to out-do the Wii with "better" technology. I am curious to see their products but I think they kind of miss the point. The folks excited about bowling on the Wii dont know or care a thing about technology and the gamers that do care either have a Wii or dont give a shit. That is a tough sell.

Natal is a crazy-no-gadget camera detection system; Move is crazy-precise motion tracking system. Neither will matter unless they have crazy good games to go with them.

While that is happening, I find myself spending more and more time with my iPad. (2M units sold in the first few months = the fastest selling new platform in technology history.) The iPhone was too small for me but the pad is a perfect casual gaming system. A nice screen, lots of space for my meaty fingers, low-price apps in the direct download app-store. I expect mobile gaming on the iOS platform to continue to dent the traditional console market - convenience, selection, and low price. Hard to beat that.

So who is excited for E3? Im crossing my fingers for some yummy surprises.